Explore scenarios that show how public policy actions can influence future biomass feedstock and bioenergy production.

About the Tool:This tool is based off of the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to explore the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States. While the BSM Tool on the KDF does not offer the full capabilities of the NREL model, it does allow users to explore the impacts of different policy scenarios on future biomass feedstock and bioenergy production. For more information, see an overview of the BSM.


How to Use the BSM Tool: Assess and compare the impacts of different national policy scenarios on feedstock and biofuel production by choosing your parameters:

  1. Select “Biofuel Production” or “Feedstock Production” as the output.
  2. Select the policy scenario and year of your model run.

Once you run a policy scenario, you can hover over regions of the chart to see how they compare to other parts of the country.

Policy Scenario Descriptions

  1. Minimal Incentives: Only a $0.45/gallon blenders credit through 2012, after which there is no government support.
  2. Equal Access to Incentives: All cellulosic biofuel production technologies have equal access to incentives. Incentives are set to very high levels for the first decade, after which all but the point-of-production incentive end.
  3. Ethanol-Focused Incentives: Moderate support for ethanol with a focus on accelerating industrial learning at an early stage. The starch ethanol industry receives a $0.45/gallon point-of-production incentive until 2012; the cellulosic ethanol industry receives a $2.65/gallon point-of-production incentive for the first one billion gallons of ethanol production, after which the level drops to $0.15/gallon. The point-of-use incentive and the distribution and storage incentive are applied equally to both the starch and cellulosic ethanol industries.
  4. Output-Focused Incentives: Incentives maximize biofuel production with a cap of $10 billion in government support. Support is directed toward the construction of pioneer- and commercial-scale refineries. This scenario incentivizes the most technologically attractive biomass-to-hydrocarbon production pathway in an effort to maximize its fuel production.
  5. Pathway Diversity-Focused Incentives: Incentivizes both the biomass-to-hydrocarbon and ethanol industries with a cap of $10 billion in government support. The incentives are triggered to promote as many pathways as reasonably possible.
  6. Point of Production-Focused Incentives: A low production incentive ($0.45/gallon) is available for all biofuels. Starch-based ethanol is subsidized for one year (2011).

For more information on the scenarios, see the definitions, construction, and description report, published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.


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