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New domestic, renewable energy resources must be considered to increase energy security in the U.S. Ethanol production through second-generation (cellulosic) feedstocks will help the U.S. meet the legislative Renewable Fuel Standard, which mandates 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022. However, conversion of cropland to meet the cellulosic feedstock production goals may have unforeseen environmental consequences.

Despite recent claims to the contrary, plant-based fuels developed in economically and environmentally sensible ways can contribute significantly to the nation’s— indeed, the world’s—energy security while providing a host of benefits for many people worldwide.

Using System Dynamics to Model the Transition to Biofuels in the United States Preprint, B. Bush, M. Duffy, and D. Sandor, National Renewable Energy Laboratory S. Peterson, Peterson Group To be presented at the Third International Conference on Systems of Systems Engineering Monterey, California June 2-4, 2008 Conference Paper NREL/CP-150-43153 June 2008

The paper describes the on-going project of the GTAP land use data base. We also present the GTAPE-AEZ model, which illustrates how land use and land-based emissions can be incorporated in the CGE framework for Integrated Assessment (IA) of climate change policies. We follow the FAO fashion of agro-ecological zoning (FAO, 2000; Fischer et al, 2002) to identify lands located in six zones. Lands located in a specific AEZ have similar (or homogenous) soil, landform and climatic characteristics.

Abstract: To ensure effective biomass feedstock provision for large-scale ethanol production, a three-stage supply chain was proposed to include biomass supply sites, centralized storage and preprocessing (CSP) sites, and biorefi nery sites. A GIS-enabled biomass supply chain optimization model (BioScope) was developed to minimize annual biomass-ethanol production costs by selecting the optimal numbers, locations, and capacities of farms, CSPs, and biorefi neries as well as identifying the optimal biomass fl ow pattern from farms to biorefi neries.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a powerful tool that may be used to quantify the environmental impacts of products and services. It includes all processes, from cradle-to-grave, along the supply chain of the product. When analysing energy systems, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (primarily CO2, CH4 and N2O) are the impact of primary concern. In using LCA to determine the climate change mitigation benefits of bioenergy, the life cycle emissions of the bioenergy system are compared with the emissions for a reference energy system.

Agricultural markets often feature significant transport costs and spatially distributed production and processing which causes spatial imperfect competition. Spatial economics considers the firms’ decisions regarding location and spatial price strategy separately, usually on the demand side, and under restrictive assumptions. Therefore, alternative approaches are needed to explain, e.g., the location of new ethanol plants in the U.S. at peripheral as well as at central locations and the observation of different spatial price strategies in the market.

When the lignocellulosic biofuels industry reaches maturity and many types of biomass sources become economically viable, management of multiple feedstock supplies – that vary in their yields, density (tons per unit area), harvest window, storage and seasonal costs, storage losses, transport distance to the production plant – will become increasingly important for the success of individual enterprises. The manager’s feedstock procurement problem is modeled as a multi-period sequence problem to account for dynamic management over time.