The authors have made every attempt to use the best information and data available, to provide transparency in the analysis, and to have experts provide input and review. However, the 2023 Billion-Ton Report is a strategic assessment of potential biomass. It alone is not sufficiently designed, developed, and validated to be a tactical planning and decision tool, and it should not be the sole source of information for supporting business decisions. This analysis provides county-level estimates of the feedstocks at a selected cost, yet users should use associated information on the Bioenergy Knowledge Discovery Framework (bioenergykdf.net/bt23-data-portal) to understand the assumptions and ramifications of using this analysis. The use of tradenames and brands are for reader convenience and are not, nor does their use imply, an endorsement by the U.S. Department of Energy or Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
The foundation of the agricultural sector analysis is the USDA Agricultural Projections. Modeling simulations cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income. The simulations are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. The 2023 Billion-Ton Report agricultural simulations of energy crops and primary crop residues are introduced in alternative scenarios to the 2023 USDA Long Term Forecast. Only 2023-2032 Billion-Ton national level baseline scenario results of crop supply, price, and planted and harvested acres for the 8 major crops are considered to be consistent with the 2015 USDA Long Term Forecast. Additional years in the 2023 Billion-Ton Report baseline scenario and downscaled reporting to the regional and county level were generated through application of separate data, analysis, and technical assumptions led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and do not represent nor imply U.S. Department of Agriculture or U.S. Department of Energy quantitative forecasts or policy. The forest scenarios were adapted from U.S. Forest Service models and developed explicitly for this report and do not reflect, imply, or represent U.S. Forest Service policy or findings.
The biomass supply projections presented in this report are policy independent and estimate the potential economic availability of biomass feedstocks using specified market scenarios and guiding principles intended to be conservative and to reflect certain environmental and socio-economic considerations. For example, some principles aim to maintain food availability and environmental quality, residue removal practices, exclusion of irrigation, and reserved land areas to protect biodiversity and soil quality. In this sense, this report may differ from other efforts seeking to depict potential biomass demand and related market, environmental and land use interactions under business-as-usual or specific policy conditions.