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Country borders have been chosen as system boundaries to inventory GHG emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. The use of country boundaries is clear and allows summing over all countries. The country inventories purposefully account for where and when both fossil-fuel combustion emissions occur, and changes in the biological stocks of carbon occur. The approach can be widely adopted, but this accounting is hampered by uncertain data (1, 2) and two basic shortcomings: Not all countries are required to report, and not all biological carbon stocks are inventoried.

Author(s):
Kline, Keith

This paper estimates household preferences for ethanol as a gasoline substitute. I develop a theoretical
model linking the shape of the ethanol demand curve to the distribution of price ratios at which individual
households switch fuels. I estimate the model using data from many retail fueling stations. Demand
is price-sensitive with a mean elasticity of 2.5�3.5. I find that preferences are heterogeneous with many
households willing to pay a premium for ethanol. This reduces the simulated cost of an ethanol content

Author(s):
Soren Anderson

A primary objective of current U.S. biofuel law – the “Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007” (EISA) – is to reduce dependence on imported oil, but the law also requires biofuels to meet carbon emission reduction thresholds relative to petroleum fuels. EISA created a renewable fuel standard with annual targets for U.S. biofuel use that climb gradually from 9 billion gallons per year in 2008 to 36 billion gallons (or about 136 billion liters) of biofuels per year by 2022. The most controversial aspects of U.S.

Author(s):
Keith L. Kline , Gbadebo Oladosu

This report is an update of the original version, which was published in October 2008. This updated report includes results from the complete 16-vehicle fleet (the original report included only the first 13 vehicles tested) as well as corrections to minor errors identified in some of the originally reported data. Conclusions drawn from the complete dataset are nearly identical to those from the
original 13-vehicle fleet but with increased statistical confidence.

Author(s):
Knoll, Keith, West, Brian

Despite recent claims to the contrary, plant-based fuels developed in economically and environmentally sensible ways can contribute significantly to the nation’s— indeed, the world’s—energy security while providing a host of benefits for many people worldwide.

Author(s):
Keith L. Kline , Virginia H. Dale , Russell Lee , Paul Leiby

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market, multi-commodity international FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) model. The model incorporates the trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade.

Author(s):
Fabiosa,Jacinto F.

The objective of the research here is to more carefully investigate the claims of localized
impacts on two fronts. The first is the impact a local ethanol plant has on the rate of agricultural
land conversion to other uses (if an ethanol plant increases the value of local agricultural land as
a result of increased commodity prices, one might expect a slower rate of conversion relative to
other communities). Second, we investigate whether the siting of an ethanol plant has had a
negative impact on local residential land values.

Author(s):
Alan Turnquist

The market for E85�a fuel blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline�is small
but growing rapidly. I use data for E85 sales at fueling stations in Minnesota to estimate
demand for E85 as a function of retail E85 and gasoline prices. I find that demand is
highly sensitive to price changes, with an own-price elasticity as high as -13 and a gasolineprice
elasticity as high as 16 at sample mean price levels. Demand is most sensitive to
price changes when the relative price of E85 is at an intermediate level, at which point

Author(s):
Soren Anderson

This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules.

Author(s):
Rounsevell M.D.A.

Discussions of alternative fuel and propulsion technologies for transportation often overlook the infrastructure required to make these options practical and cost-effective. We estimate ethanol production facility locations and use a linear optimization model to consider the economic costs of distributing various ethanol fuel blends to all metropolitan areas in the United States. Fuel options include corn-based E5 (5% ethanol, 95% gasoline) to E16 from corn and switchgrass, as short-term substitutes for petroleum-based fuel.

Author(s):
William R. Morrow

An analysis was performed at NREL to examine the global warming potential and energy balance of power generation from fossil and biomass systems including CO2 sequestration. To get the true environmental picture, a life cycle approach, which takes into account upstream process steps, was applied. Each system maintained the same constant generating capacity and any lost capacity due to CO2 sequestration was accounted for by adding power generation from a natural gas combined-cycle system. This paper discusses the systems examined and gives the net energy and GWP for each system.

Author(s):
Spath, Pam

Technology for producing transportation fuel from biomass is moving out of the laboratory and into the marketplace. In the past decade, advances in biotechnology have allowed us to reduce the projected cost of bioethanol by nearly 25%.

Author(s):
Sheehan, J.

The U.S. Department of Energy has supported a research and development program for the establishment of renewable, biomass-derived, liquid fuels for the better part of the last twenty years. These 'biofuels' represent opportunities to respond to uncertainties about our energy security and the future health of our environment. Throughout its history, the Biofuels Program has experienced an ongoing fiscal 'roller coaster'. Funding has ebbed and flowed with changing political and public attitudes about energy.

Author(s):
Sheehan, J.

Limited fuel availability is a critical factor in the marketability of new fuels. A survey of us households is used to estimate the value of fuel availability and its influence on choice of fuel for a fuel-flexible vehicle and the choice of a dedicated-fuel engine for a vehicle. The marginal value of availability decreases as the percent of stations offering a new fuel increases. For fuel-flexible vehicles the cost of lack of availability decreases from us $0.35/gallon at 1% to US $0.02/gallon when 50% of stations offer the fuel.

Author(s):
David L. Greene

Traffic flows in the U.S. have been affected by the substantial increase and, as of January 2009, decrease in biofuel production and use. This paper considers a framework to study the effect on grain transportation flows of the 2005 Energy Act and subsequent legislation, which mandated higher production levels of biofuels, e.g. ethanol and biodiesels. Future research will incorporate changes due to the recent economic slowdown.

Author(s):
Ahmedov, Zarabek

Ethanol use in the U.S. rose sharply in recent years due to public policy and a spike in petroleum prices, and remains high. Public support for ethanol includes mandated minimum levels of use nationwide. However, rather little is known about consumer demand for ethanol and much less about demand by type of blend and ethanol source. We used trial survey data and conjoint analysis to overcome the lack of historical data on consumers’ preferences for ethanol blend fuels.

Author(s):
Aguilar, Francisco X.

This paper examines the possibilities of breaking into the cellulosic ethanol market in south Louisiana via strategic feedstock choices and the leveraging of the area’s competitive advantages. A small plant strategy is devised whereby the first-mover problem might be solved, and several scenarios are tested using Net Present Value analysis.

Author(s):
Darby, Paul