Link to the website with documentation and download instructions for the PNNL Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a community model or long-term, global energy, agriculture, land use, and emissions. BioEnergy production, transformation, and use is an integral part of GCAM modeling and scenarios.
Potential Avenues for High Biofuels Penetration in the U.S. Aviation Market, Supplemental Tableau Workbook, 2016
Emily Newes, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Jeongwoo Han, Argonne National Laboratory Steve Peterson, Lexidyne LLC
The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. It is a tool designed to better understand biofuels policy as it impacts the development of the supply chain for biofuels in the United States.
This page houses the BSM articles that have been published. For more information, see the link to NREL's list of publications on the BSM.
This project looks at the potential of blending ethanol with natural gasoline to produce Flex-Fuels (ASTM D5798-13a) and high-octane, mid-level ethanol blends. Eight natural gasoline samples were collected from pipeline companies or ethanol producers around the United States.
The objective of this work was to measure knock resistance metrics for ethanol-hydrocarbon blends with a primary focus on development of methods to measure the heat of vaporization (HOV). Blends of ethanol at 10 to 50 volume percent were prepared with three gasoline blendstocks and a natural gasoline.
High-octane fuels (HOFs) such as mid-level ethanol blends can be leveraged to design vehicles with increased engine efficiency, but producing these fuels at refineries may be subject to energy efficiency penalties. It has been questioned whether, on a well-to-wheels (WTW) basis, the use of HOFs in the vehicles designed for HOF has net greenhouse gas (GHG) emission benefits.
Vimmerstedt, L. J., Bush, B. W., Hsu, D. D., Inman, D. and Peterson, S. O. (2014), Maturation of biomass-to-biofuels conversion technology pathways for rapid expansion of biofuels production: a system dynamics perspective. Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref.. doi: 10.1002/bbb.1515
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Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses.
The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values.
The database summarizes a very broad set of old and new standing biomass data from plantation-grown hardwoods and softwoods established under a wide range of conditions across the United States and Canada. The WCYP database, together with this document, is being published to disseminate information on what is available in the literature with respect to yield evaluations and to inform people that not all yield data in the open literature are suitable for evaluation of “potential” regional yields.
Biomass Scenario Model: Supplemental Tableau workbook for Christopher M Clark et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 025016 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025016 Growing a sustainable biofuels industry: economics, environmental considerations, and the role of the Conservation Reserve Program
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This paper describes the current Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) as of August 2013, a system dynamics model developed under the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The model is the result of a multi-year project at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). It is a tool designed to better understand biofuels policy as it impacts the development of the supply chain for biofuels in the United States.
A woody crop yield potential (WCYP) database was created containing yield results with as much associated information as was available concerning the sites, soils, and experimental treatments. The database summarizes a very broad set of old and new standing biomass data from plantation-grown hardwoods and softwoods established under a wide range of conditions across the United States and Canada.
In support of the national goals for biofuel use in the United States, numerous technologies have been developed that convert biomass to biofuels. Some of these biomass to biofuel conversion technology pathways are operating at commercial scales, while others are in earlier stages of development. The advancement of a new pathway toward commercialization involves various types of progress, including yield improvements, process engineering, and financial performance.
Nationwide spatial dataset representing the polygon areas for first-generation suitability analysis of potentially suitable areas for microalgae open ponds. The PNNL microalgae growth model results for each site are included in the attribute table and assume growth based on theoretical limits. Sites represent a minimum mapping unit of 490 hectares. Land suitability included area less than or equal to 1% slope on non-agricultural, undeveloped or low‐density developed, nonsensitive, generally noncompetitive land was considered for microalgal culture facilities.
Biofuels are promoted in the United States through aggressive legislation, as one part of an overall strategy to lessen dependence on imported energy as well as to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (Office of the Biomass Program and Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2008). For example, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) mandates 36 billion gallons of renewable liquid transportation fuel in the U.S. marketplace by the year 2022 (U.S. Government, 2007).
Microalgae are receiving increased global attention as a potential sustainable “energy crop”for biofuel production. An important step to realizing the potential of algae is quantifying the demands commercial‐scale algal biofuel production will place on water and land resources. We present a high‐resolution spatiotemporal assessment that brings to bear fundamental questions of where production can occur, how many land and water resources are required, and how much energy is produced.
A primary objective of current U.S. biofuel law – the “Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007” (EISA) – is to reduce dependence on imported oil, but the law also requires biofuels to meet carbon emission reduction thresholds relative to petroleum fuels. EISA created a renewable fuel standard with annual targets for U.S. biofuel use that climb gradually from 9 billion gallons per year in 2008 to 36 billion gallons (or about 136 billion liters) of biofuels per year by 2022. The most controversial aspects of U.S.
ORNL Report ORNL/TM-2010-120.
Transitioning to a larger biofuels industry requires a robust biomass-to-biofuels system of systems that operates within existing agriculture, forestry, energy, and transportation markets. Using the existing fuel supply chain infrastructure as a framework, this paper discusses a vision for biomass-based fuels and the challenges associated with a massive market and infrastructure transformation.