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The objective of the research here is to more carefully investigate the claims of localized
impacts on two fronts. The first is the impact a local ethanol plant has on the rate of agricultural
land conversion to other uses (if an ethanol plant increases the value of local agricultural land as
a result of increased commodity prices, one might expect a slower rate of conversion relative to
other communities). Second, we investigate whether the siting of an ethanol plant has had a
negative impact on local residential land values.

Author(s):
Alan Turnquist

IMPACT – the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade – was developed at IFPRI at the beginning of the 1990s, upon the realization that there was a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policy makers and researchers about the actions that are necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. In 1993, these same long-term global concerns launched the 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment Initiative.

Author(s):
Rosegrant, Mark W.

In response to concerns about oil dependency and the contributions of fossil fuel use to climatic change, the U.S. Department of Energy has begun a research initiative to make 20% of motor fuels biofuel based in 10 years, and make 30% of fuels bio-based by 2030. Fundamental to this objective is developing an understanding of feedstock dynamics of crops suitable for cellulosic ethanol production. This report focuses on switchgrass, reviewing the existing literature from field trials across the United States, and compiling it for the first time into a single database.

Author(s):
Gunderson, Carla A.

Growing concern about climate change and energy security has led to increasing interest in developing renewable, domestic energy sources for meeting electricity, heating and fuel needs in the United States. Illinois has significant potential to produce bioenergy crops, including corn, soybeans, miscanthus (Miscanthus giganteus), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum). However, land requirements for bioenergy crops place them in competition with more traditional agricultural uses, in particular food production.

Author(s):
Scheffran, Jurgen

The market for E85�a fuel blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline�is small
but growing rapidly. I use data for E85 sales at fueling stations in Minnesota to estimate
demand for E85 as a function of retail E85 and gasoline prices. I find that demand is
highly sensitive to price changes, with an own-price elasticity as high as -13 and a gasolineprice
elasticity as high as 16 at sample mean price levels. Demand is most sensitive to
price changes when the relative price of E85 is at an intermediate level, at which point

Author(s):
Soren Anderson

Discussions of alternative fuel and propulsion technologies for transportation often overlook the infrastructure required to make these options practical and cost-effective. We estimate ethanol production facility locations and use a linear optimization model to consider the economic costs of distributing various ethanol fuel blends to all metropolitan areas in the United States. Fuel options include corn-based E5 (5% ethanol, 95% gasoline) to E16 from corn and switchgrass, as short-term substitutes for petroleum-based fuel.

Author(s):
William R. Morrow

The Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is the part of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) that represents the human systems. EPPA is a recursive-dynamic multi-regional general equilibrium model of the world economy, which is built on the GTAP dataset and additional data for the greenhouse gas and urban gas emissions. It is designed to develop projections of economic growth and anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse related gases and aerosols. The main purpose of this report is to provide documentation of a new version of EPPA, EPPA version 4.

Author(s):
Paltsev Sergey

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution.

Author(s):
Verburg,P.H.

Land use change models are tools to support the analysis of the causes and consequences of land use dynamics. Scenario analysis with land use models can support land use planning and policy. Numerous land use models are available, developed from different disciplinary backgrounds. This paper reviews current models to identify priority issues for future land use change modelling research.

Author(s):
Verburg, Peter H.

Land-use change models are used by researchers and professionals to explore the dynamics and drivers of land-use/land-cover change and to inform policies affecting such change. A broad array of models and modeling methods are available to researchers, and each type has certain advantages and disadvantages depending on the objective of the research. This report presents a review of different types of models as a means of exploring the functionality and ability of different approaches.

Author(s):
Agarwal,Chetan

This presentation summarizes findings of a life cycle analysis of the energy and environmental impacts of converting corn stove (the residue from corn harvesting) to ethanol.

Author(s):
Sheehan, J.

This paper presents an overview of multi-agent system models of land-use/cover change (MAS/LUCC models). This special class of LUCC models combines a cellular landscape model with agent-based representations of decisionmaking, integrating the two components through specification of interdependencies and feedbacks between agents and their environment. The authors review alternative LUCC modeling techniques and discuss the ways in which MAS/LUCC models may overcome some important limitations of existing techniques. We briefly review ongoing MAS/LUCC modeling efforts in four research areas.

Author(s):
Parker, Dawn C.

This paper offers a graphical exposition of the GTAP model of global trade. Particular emphasis is placed on the accounting, or equilibrium, relationships in the model. It begins with a treatment of the a one region version of GTAP, thereafter adding a rest of world region to highlight the treatment of trade flows in the model. The implementation of policy instruments in GTAP is also explored, using simple supply-demand graphics. The material provided in this paper was first developed as an introduction to GTAP for participants taking the annual short course.

Author(s):
BROCKMEIER,Martina

The paper presents a general introduction to the structure and the characteristics of AGLINK, in comparison with the other most important global multi-commodity partial equilibrium models. Special reference is made to policy modelling, and particularly to the representation of the most important CAP tools, grouped into four types; direct price support, trade measures, supply management tools, and partially decoupled payments. The model is one of the most interesting efforts, especially in terms of its ability to effectively represent EU agricultural policy tools.

Author(s):
Conforti,Piero

The Targets IMage Energy Regional simulation model, TIMER, is described in detail. This model was developed and used in close connection with the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) 2.2. The system-dynamics TIMER model simulates the global energy system at an intermediate level of aggregation. The model can be used on a stand-alone basis or integrated within the framework of the integrated assessment model IMAGE 2.2. The model simulates the world on the basis of 17 regions.

Author(s):
Bert J.M. de Vries

This report discusses the development of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates for the production of Fischer-Tropsch (FT) derived fuels (in particular, FT diesel), makes comparisons of these estimates to reported literature values for petroleum-derived diesel, and outlines strategies for substantially reducing these emissions.

Author(s):
Marano, John J.

Technology for producing transportation fuel from biomass is moving out of the laboratory and into the marketplace. In the past decade, advances in biotechnology have allowed us to reduce the projected cost of bioethanol by nearly 25%.

Author(s):
Sheehan, J.