Policy makers are interested in estimates of the potential economic impacts of oil price shocks, particularly during periods of rapid and large increases that accompany severe supply shocks. Literature estimates of the economic impacts of oil price shocks, summarized by the oil price elasticity of GDP, span a very wide range due to both fundamental economic and methodological factors. This paper presents a quantitative meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil importing countries, with a focus on the United States (US). The full range of estimates of the oil price elasticity of GDP for the US in the data is − 0.124 to + 0.017, accounting for different methodologies, data and other factors. We employ a meta-regression model that controls for key determinant factors to estimate the mean and variance of the GDP elasticity across studies. We use a robust estimation technique to deal with heterogeneity of the data and well-known econometric issues that confront meta-analysis. The resulting regression model is used to simulate the oil price elasticity of GDP for the US, with a mean of − 0.020% and 68% confidence interval of − 0.035 to − 0.006, four quarters after a shock.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Funded from the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office.