Link to the website with documentation and download instructions for the PNNL Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a community model or long-term, global energy, agriculture, land use, and emissions. BioEnergy production, transformation, and use is an integral part of GCAM modeling and scenarios.
This paper estimates household preferences for ethanol as a gasoline substitute. I develop a theoretical
model linking the shape of the ethanol demand curve to the distribution of price ratios at which individual
households switch fuels. I estimate the model using data from many retail fueling stations. Demand
is price-sensitive with a mean elasticity of 2.5�3.5. I find that preferences are heterogeneous with many
households willing to pay a premium for ethanol. This reduces the simulated cost of an ethanol content
A primary objective of current U.S. biofuel law – the “Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007” (EISA) – is to reduce dependence on imported oil, but the law also requires biofuels to meet carbon emission reduction thresholds relative to petroleum fuels. EISA created a renewable fuel standard with annual targets for U.S. biofuel use that climb gradually from 9 billion gallons per year in 2008 to 36 billion gallons (or about 136 billion liters) of biofuels per year by 2022. The most controversial aspects of U.S.
This report is an update of the original version, which was published in October 2008. This updated report includes results from the complete 16-vehicle fleet (the original report included only the first 13 vehicles tested) as well as corrections to minor errors identified in some of the originally reported data. Conclusions drawn from the complete dataset are nearly identical to those from the
original 13-vehicle fleet but with increased statistical confidence.
This is an article from Science Magazine from October 2008. Science-based policy is essential for guiding an environmentally sustainable approach to cellulosic biofuels. The May 2008 passage of the 2008 Farm Bill raises the stakes for biofuel sustainability: A substantial subsidy for the production of cellulosic ethanol starts the United States again down a path with uncertain environmental consequences.
We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market, multi-commodity international FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) model. The model incorporates the trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade.
The objective of the research here is to more carefully investigate the claims of localized
impacts on two fronts. The first is the impact a local ethanol plant has on the rate of agricultural
land conversion to other uses (if an ethanol plant increases the value of local agricultural land as
a result of increased commodity prices, one might expect a slower rate of conversion relative to
other communities). Second, we investigate whether the siting of an ethanol plant has had a
negative impact on local residential land values.
This study is a statistical analysis to estimate the significance of factors that influence the volume of E85 sales to the general public in Minnesota from 1997 to 2006.
A working paper review of current approaches to accounting for indirect land-use changes in green house gas balances of biofuels. This report reviews the current effort made worldwide to address this issue. A
description of land-use concepts is first provided (Section 2) followed by a classification of
ILUC sources (Section 3). Then, a discussion on the implications of including ILUC
emissions in the GHG balance of biofuel pathways (Section 4) and a review of methodologies
being developed to quantify indirect land-use change (Section 5) are presented. Section 6
Biofuels from land-rich tropical countries may help displace foreign petroleum imports for many industrialized nations, providing a possible solution to the twin challenges of energy security and climate change. But concern is mounting that crop-based biofuels will increase net greenhouse gas emissions if feedstocks are produced by expanding agricultural lands. Here we quantify the ?carbon payback time? for a range of biofuel crop expansion pathways in the tropics.
Land-use changes are frequently indicated to be one of the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. For land-use change, groundwater research has mainly focused on the change in water quality thereby neglecting changes in quantity. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land-use changes, from 2000 until 2020, on the hydrological balance and in particular on groundwater quantity, as results from a case study in the Kleine Nete basin, Belgium.
In this paper we investigate the potential production and implications of a global biofuels industry. We develop alternative approaches to the introduction of land as an economic factor input, in value and physical terms, into a computable general equilibrium framework. Both approach allows us to parameterize biomass production in a manner consistent with agro-engineering information on yields and a ?second generation? cellulosic biomass conversion technology.
This report identify the issues associated with intermediate ethanol blends with an emphasis on the end-use or
vehicle impacts of increased ethanol levels and compile a current and complete bibliography of key references on intermediate ethanol blends.
The market for E85�a fuel blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline�is small
but growing rapidly. I use data for E85 sales at fueling stations in Minnesota to estimate
demand for E85 as a function of retail E85 and gasoline prices. I find that demand is
highly sensitive to price changes, with an own-price elasticity as high as -13 and a gasolineprice
elasticity as high as 16 at sample mean price levels. Demand is most sensitive to
price changes when the relative price of E85 is at an intermediate level, at which point
Discussions of alternative fuel and propulsion technologies for transportation often overlook the infrastructure required to make these options practical and cost-effective. We estimate ethanol production facility locations and use a linear optimization model to consider the economic costs of distributing various ethanol fuel blends to all metropolitan areas in the United States. Fuel options include corn-based E5 (5% ethanol, 95% gasoline) to E16 from corn and switchgrass, as short-term substitutes for petroleum-based fuel.
An analysis was performed at NREL to examine the global warming potential and energy balance of power generation from fossil and biomass systems including CO2 sequestration. To get the true environmental picture, a life cycle approach, which takes into account upstream process steps, was applied. Each system maintained the same constant generating capacity and any lost capacity due to CO2 sequestration was accounted for by adding power generation from a natural gas combined-cycle system. This paper discusses the systems examined and gives the net energy and GWP for each system.
The generation of electricity, and the consumption of energy in general, often result in adverse effects on the environment. Coal-fired power plants generate over half of the electricity used in the U.S., and therefore play a significant role in any discussion of energy and the environment. By cofiring biomass, currently-operating coal plants have an opportunity to reduce the impact they have, but to what degree, and with what trade-offs? A life cycle assessment (LCA) has been conducted on a coal-fired power system that cofires wood residue.
Technology for producing transportation fuel from biomass is moving out of the laboratory and into the marketplace. In the past decade, advances in biotechnology have allowed us to reduce the projected cost of bioethanol by nearly 25%.
To determine the environmental implications of producing electricity from biomass and coal, life cycle assessments (LCA) have been conducted on systems based on three power generation options: (1) a biomass-fired integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) system, (2) three coal-fired power plant technologies, and (3) a system cofiring waste biomass with coal.
The U.S. Department of Energy has supported a research and development program for the establishment of renewable, biomass-derived, liquid fuels for the better part of the last twenty years. These 'biofuels' represent opportunities to respond to uncertainties about our energy security and the future health of our environment. Throughout its history, the Biofuels Program has experienced an ongoing fiscal 'roller coaster'. Funding has ebbed and flowed with changing political and public attitudes about energy.